The four-week-old ceasefire in the Gulf is beginning to show its wear and tear. It is in grave danger due to the US and Iran's resolve to maintain pressure on one another. This is a risky time.
The ceasefire created an opportunity for diplomacy, which briefly appeared to have the potential to advance. In Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, Iranians and Americans confronted each other across a conference table but failed to produce any results.
Pakistanis are attempting to resurrect the procedure, but they have not had much luck thus far. Iran and the United States both seek an agreement. However, they are adhering to their red lines and have various deals in mind. Renewed full-scale hostilities are still a long way off until one or both, or ideally both, choose to make compromises.
Misperception and underestimation of intentions and outcomes are more likely than ever. These are the traditional ways that conflicts spiral out of control and wars intensify.
The closure of the strait will have an impact on the world economy. The severity of the war's effects on people worldwide will depend on how long it remains closed. Millions of people outside from the conflict zone are increasingly affected by shortages of gas and oil, as well as feedstocks for fertilizer and helium for high-tech businesses. In nations without reliable food supply, the fertilizer problem could lead to starvation.
Declared or not, President Donald Trump's motivations are always nuanced and subject to change. He has attempted to convince oil merchants not to raise the price of gasoline for American drivers by using social media.
The Iranian regime's tenacity and resolve to withstand the suffering that America and Israel impose on the nation must also irritate him. The wellbeing of its population will not be a major concern for a regime that is willing to shoot its own citizens in the streets for protesting, as the security forces of the Islamic Republic did once again in January, at least not until it threatens their hold on power.
Trump's displeasure stems from his own hasty choice to go to war with the expectation of an easy win, without considering the repercussions and what to do in the event that it isn't. Although the US has demonstrated the strength of its extremely effective military, the nation is in a strategic bind due to the president's erratic decision-making.
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